“It is clear that some of the population in Sudan remains dissatisfied with the agreement between the TMC and the FFC on the transition, especially since the implementation of the Political Declaration and the Constitutional Declaration will not be followed by direct effects perceptible to the population (the TMC will be dissolved, but the military will retain the presidency of the Sovereign Transition Council during the first 21 months of the transition).” […]

Executive summary in 4 points

  1. The initialing of the Constitutional Declaration on August 4, 2019, is not unanimously welcomed within the FFC
  2. Parallel negotiations are taking place between the TMC and rebel groups on the one hand, and the FFC and rebel groups on the other, paving the way for variable agreements
  3. Despite the establishment of a civilian transition, the possibility of impunity for the military and in particular the Rapid Support Force (RSF) could increase public dissatisfaction
  4. The main scenario to be considered is a continuation of the security status quo, with a risk of further violent demonstrations, amid uncertainty about the status of rebel groups

Stake experts recommends:

Constant monitoring of the evolution of demonstrations and the posture of rebel groups, and the updating of logistical routes accordingly.

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