“Starting on June 22, the country experienced increasing security tension. Between 22 and June 29, Ethiopian authorities arrested 212 members of the Amhara regional security forces, including the head of the regional Special Forces. Similarly, some 40 activists of the Amhara Nationalist Political Party (NaMa) were arrested by the federal authorities in Addis Ababa and in the vicinity of the federal capital.” […]

Executive summary in 4 points

  1. The failed coup attempt against the government of the Amhara region shows the divisions within the army and the political class, in the face of the reforms undertaken since April 2018 by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed
  2. The federal government has demonstrated serious control of the situation and effective crisis communication, which allowed a rapid stabilization
  3. The issue of the reforms of the Federal Constitution could become another source of serious tensions in the medium to long term
  4. The scenario of an intensification of inter-ethnic tensions (particularly between Amhara and Gumuz) cannot be ruled out in the medium term.

Stake experts recommends:

Increased vigilance on the political discourse of other nationalist movements in Ethiopia, including on the progress of reforms to the federal constitution, in order to detect early signs of possible escalation.

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